Full text: Migration and business cycles

THE PROBLEM 7 
they lessen the inequalities in employment due to seasonal and 
cyclical variations in industrial activity. The immigrant, they say, 
comes and goes as he is wanted, aiding us when the need for men is 
greatest, departing to his native country when jobs are scarce. 
The maladjustment theory. On the other hand, those who take a 
more pessimistic view urge that migration fails to synchronize well 
with the seasonal and cyclical fluctuations in industry and to that 
extent increases unemployment in dull seasons of the year and in 
periods of industrial depression. They suggest that when industry 
begins to slacken, immigration continues, and even if it decreases 
in volume, the change comes too slowly to aid materially in the 
improvement of employment conditions.* Furthermore, it is sug- 
gested, the very fact that a new supply of labor is available in 
times of industrial expansion is a vicious influence in that it enables 
the employer to enlarge the scope of his operations readily, and by 
this very expansion increases the intensity of the subsequent de- 
pression. ? 
As usual in such cases, there is doubtless some element of truth in 
both points of view—that which stresses the susceptibility of mi- 
oration to employment conditions, and that which stresses the im- 
perfections of such adjustments. The relative credence to be given 
to these conflicting interpretations can be determined only by close 
scrutiny of the ways in which the tide of migration ebbs and flows 
with seasonal and cyclical changes in industrial activity. 
Summary of the Contents of Succeeding Chapters. 
The first of the following chapters is devoted to a sketch of the 
major features of immigration into the United States, partly to in- 
dicate the reasons for the selection of the elements to which special 
attention is given and the reasons for the methods of analysis which 
are applied, and partly for the convenience of those readers who 
have not given close attention to the character of immigration into 
this country in recent decades. This chapter can be scanned 
quickly by the reader who is familiar with the major features of im- 
migration to the United States. 
To facilitate the study of the relation of migration to employ- 
ment conditions, it is necessary to have before us a picture of the 
alternations in prosperity and depression during the period covered 
by our analysis. Accordingly, in the third chapter, we turn to a 
3See the argument by Professor Gustav Cassel to the effect that immigration ag- 
gravates the severity of depressions, The Theory of Social Economy, Vol. II, pp. 545-547. 
*Cf. Director’s footnote ‘a’, p. 120. 
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