MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
The Lag. 
The movements in quarterly male immigration and merchandise 
imports are not, however, exactly coincident. From 1869 to 1873 
immigration clearly lags from two to four quarters behind the turns 
in imports. The lag, if any, in the depression of the seventies is not 
obvious; and thereafter, while evident at times, does not appear to 
be so great as in the first part of the period, ranging from no lag in 
the short depression of 1881 to about three quarters in the depression 
of 1885. 
CHAPTER SUMMARY 
In this chapter we have first taken a bird's-eye view of the 
relation of immigration to industrial activity by comparing the 
annual statistics of immigration with those for imports of mer- 
chandise over the entire century beginning in 1820, and with the 
annual production of pig iron in the period beginning with 1860. 
From these comparisons it is clear that, particularly after the Civil 
War, the cyclical fluctuations in immigration are to a large extent 
a reflex of industrial conditions in the United States, the effect 
upon immigration evidently becoming apparent in something less 
than a year. 
Then we have subjected the period from 1868 to 1889 to a some- 
what more detailed scrutiny by comparing quarterly cycles of male 
immigration and imports of merchandise, both corrected for their 
typical seasonal variations. This comparison strengthens our pre- 
liminary conclusions based upon annual data, and indicates a lag 
in the effect of industrial conditions upon immigration of from two 
to four quarters in the early part of the period and a somewhat 
shorter lag in the latter part of the period. 
In the following chapter we turn our attention to an examination 
of the more detailed data available for the years following 1889. 
QL