APPENDIX A.
365
The duration under National Health Insurance conditions is the longer
at the younger ages, but at the older ages the Manchester Unity duration
is the greater. At ages over 50 the difference is considerable, and, combined
with the smaller proportion of cases, as shown in Table 2 (cols. 3 and 4),
explains the relatively favourable experience at these ages brought out in
Table B (M.) appended to the Report of the Actuarial Committee.
The results given in Tables (8) and (4) seem consistent with the
theory advanced above that the claims contain an appreciable element of
¢ linked-up ” illnesses, of relatively short duration, in regard to which the
claimant has been disqualified during the year from receiving the higher
rate of sickness benefit. This feature may help to explain the high figures
shown in column (17) of Tables I, IT and. ITI.
10. In view of the rising cost of disablement benefit the ‘ full proportion
receiving ’—Col. (4) of Table 2—and the ‘“ average duration *’—Col. (2)
of Table 3—have been computed for each of the years 1921, 1922 and 1923.
To indicate the run of the figures from year to year it is sufficient to give
general averages for all ages. These have heen obtained for women
(spinsters and widows) as well as for men, and the results are given below.
TABLE 5
Proportion receiving
disablement benefit.
Average duration
(weeks).
Men.
1921
1922
018
+022
25-7
fe:
25+9
by
1923
+023
2%:5
Women (S. & W.).
1921
1922
1923
“021
+024
027
28-6
28-5
29-4
=
These results seem quite consistent with the theory that disablement
benefit is growing towards the equilibrium that should be represented by
the maturity of the experience. The proportion in receipt of the benefit
grows because the new permanent cases in which the disablement benefit
stage is reached are not yet balanced by deaths. The average duration
shows, as would be expected if this theory is correct, a small upward
tendency. The growth in the claims of men appears to show an indication
to end, but no such feature is found in the case of women.
11. Reference is made in para. 9 above to the figures shown in Col. 17 of
Tables I, II and ITI. These figures show for each age group the proportion
of those receiving disablement benefit in a year who have ¢ gone off the
fund ”’ during the year. These proportions are very instructive, and will
dispel any idea that disablement claims in all cases arise out of permanent
sickness. So far as men are concerned, it appears that on the average of
the years 1921-23 about 45 per cent. of all who claimed disablement benefit
in a particular year at ages under 40 ceased to draw it during that year.
In the case of unmarried women, the corresponding proportion is about
40 per cent. Among married women, on the other hand, the proportion
is over 50 per cent. In each class the proportion ¢ going-off ”’ diminishes
as ages advance, but even at ages over 60 it is about 20 per cent.
12. There is no corresponding friendly society experience with which
this feature can be compared and it is impossible to form an opinion therefore
as to whether it is more prominent under compulsory insurance than
under a voluntary system. In any case it seems to invite examination; it
suggests that more active administration and especially an increased
resort to the medical referee system might result in an earlier termination
of many claims that are now prolonged for a brief period into disablement
benefit. with resultant saving on both sickness and disablement claims.
