THE HOLDING MOVEMENT IN AGRICULTURE 253 
market; and if carrying charges be taken into account, it will 
be seen that if the farmer had sold in any one of the eight months 
he would have lost by the holding. 
It is to be noted that the advocates of holding base their argu- 
ment not on the ten year average but on the farmers’ ability to 
take advantage of the monthly fluctuations in price during each 
year. For example, Mr. Harding, formerly of the Federal Reserve 
Board, while disclaiming to give any advice on the matter of hold- 
ing cotton, said: “I wish to call attention to the fact that cotton is 
a commodity which has always shown itself susceptible to marked 
and sudden fluctuations in value”; and he goes on to infer that, 
owing to this fact, it should be to the farmer’s advantage to 
hold his cotton, in order to take advantage of such fluctuations. 
He assumes that under prevailing conditions cotton is thrown 
on the market in such qualities as to cause congestion, and adds 
that for the provision for Commodity Paper in the Federal 
Reserve Act will permit more orderly methods in marketing the 
crop. To quote, “I am convinced that the results of a gradual 
marketing of the crop this season will be far more satisfactory 
than would be the case were the crop forced upon the market 
within a short period.” * 
In order to show just what the monthly fluctuations are and 
what they mean to the farmer, the following tables have been 
prepared. These tables state for each of the four commodities 
the monthly selling prices for a ten year period, the cost of carry- 
ing, the net selling price (selling price less cost of carrying), and 
if carried after being ready for market, the monthly profit or 
loss to the farmer after the carrying charges have been met. 
Table V shows the actual gain or loss per bushel by holding 
wheat and selling in any month after August during each year, 
1903-04 to 1912-13, and the average monthly gain or loss during 
the ten year period. 
It is clear from this table that if the farmer had held his wheat 
from August, 1903, until the following November, he would have 
lost seven cents per bushel, but if he had held it until either 
February or July, 1904, he would have made a profit of the same 
amount. It is also seen that during four of the ten years there 
was no month in which the farmer could have sold at a profit 
from holding, but that in each month during these years he would 
' Federal Reserve Board Bulletin, 1915, p. 225.