THE HOLDING MOVEMENT IN AGRICULTURE 265 
gave him no choice in the matter and whose necessities corppelled 
him to market his grain each year for twenty-nine years imme- 
diately after the harvest was, if anything, more fortunate on the 
average, so far as net results are concerned, than his more pros- 
perous neighbor who was able to dispose of his grain at the end 
of the crop year.” 
wish now to call attention to the statistics on this question of 
whether or not it pays to hold for higher prices, as presented by 
the statistician of the Farm Bureau, and published in its officia 
organ. (American Farm Bureau Weekly News Letter, August 31, 
1922.) These statistics cover practically the same period as my 
gures given above. The average difference between the highest 
and the lowest contract price for wheat over a ten-year period 
1s given at 14.1 cents a bushel. As the cost of carriage is 
rom twelve to fourteen cents this difference is practically wiped 
out. 
The average gain from holding corn is given as 12.3 cents per 
bushel, which, owing to the heavy shrinkage of this grain in 
storage, 1s not sufficient to meet the carrying charges. The 
average gain from holding oats is given at 5.18 per bushel. This 
amount will just about meet the carrying charges. The difference 
in the case of rye is 8.6 cents; in the case of barley, 7.1 cents pe 
bushel. In both cases there is nothing left after carrying charges 
are met. It must be borne in mind that these differences repre- 
sent the extreme range of seasonal prices and can measure the 
farmer’s gain from holding only on the assumption that if he 
does not hold he will sell on the lowest market of the season and 
that if he does hold he will sell at the peak of the season’s prices. 
A very violent assumption, indeed. In this connection reference 
s made to “months in which prices are usually high.” It is 
rue that if there were such months the problem of hitting the 
igh prices of the season would be greatly simplified. The holder 
‘ould merely wait for these months to come around and then sell. 
ut that there are no such months a study of the monthly 
flunctuations must convince the most sceptical, as is shown by 
the following table, which has been compiled from the statistics 
given above, and which shows for each of the years 1903-1912 
the month of highest price for wheat, corn, and cotton 
respectively: