Full text: The statistical verification of social and economic theory

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC THEORY 
31 
standard rate of tax in 1922-8 was 4-28 times the 
amount of the rate in 1912-13. If business in 1912-13 
yielded a profit of Y per cent., and that percentage 
included the tax which had to be paid thereon, then on 
the theory that those in control of the business will not 
carry on unless they receive the same net reward for 
their efforts during the period of much higher taxation, 
when the rate of tax was 5s. in the £ the gross rate of 
profit on turnover would require to rise to 1-25 times 
Y per cent., or an increase on the original return of 
23/90ths of its value. This increase, to be effective in 
its object, would require to be realized throughout the 
whole range of the dispersion, and the tables and graphs 
presented in the memorandum offer no evidence in sup- 
port of any such increase. On the contrary, the earnings 
of the industry for these seven groups as a whole, before 
payment or deduction of income-tax, when related to the 
unit of the pound of, turnover are practically the same 
in 1912-18 and 1922-3, notwithstanding the increase 
in the standard rate of income-tax by 828 per cent. 
The whole of a large inquiry which I have very briefly 
summarized, is worthy of close study by economists and 
statisticians. 
VII. The Curriculum of the University. 
As raw material accumulates and as detailed results 
are co-ordinated, with recognized apparatus and outside 
support, the new students who are to advance the science 
must be increasingly directed along the appropriate lines 
if they are to help in establishing economics as a quantita- 
tive science. ‘In so far as they accomplish this aim’, 
says Mitchell, ‘they will in transforming the subject make 
obsolete not only the qualitative work of Dr. Marshall 
and others, but also the crude beginnings of quantitative 
work which their elders are producing.’ 
He foresees that the new literature will be numberless 
papers and monographs, and books will pass out of date 
more rapidly. No one will get the prestige of Mill and
	        
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