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INTERNATIONAL TRADE 
expect. But just how is this result brought about? Is it in fact 
brought about in the way that theory lays down — by an initial 
flow of specie, subsequent movements of prices, and only in the 
end by the appropriate flow of merchandise? How far can we 
trace the sequence of events in detail, and so subject our deductive 
analysis to a rigorous test? 
Here the phenomena again are baffling. The movement of 
specie is rarely considerable — considerable, that is, in comparison 
with the volume (in money terms) of the merchandise movements. 
When it does take place on a large scale, the explanation usually 
is to be found in other directions than are indicated by the general 
theory of international trade. Heavy and rapid transfers of specie 
from one country to another are, it is clear, usually the result of 
financial disturbances, of crop vicissitudes, of causes that exhaust 
their effects in a few months or at most in a year or two. And as 
regards the broad continuing movements of specie — those that 
are moderate in any one year, but are cumulative — the same 
sort of statement appears justified: they too seem explicable in 
the main on grounds other than are considered in our theorizing. 
The steady inflow of gold into Great Britain from 1850 to 1873, 
the equally steady inflow from 1896 to 1914 — these are obviously 
but one phase of the world’s increased gold production. The 
growing supply was distributed among the different countries 
largely thru Great Britain, that country absorbing a share only. 
We may indeed reason on general principles that during such a 
period as that from 1850 to 1890, the general conditions of her 
international trade were such as would have tended in any event 
to turn the flow of specie her way. The actual inflow of specie, 
we may reason, simply was made greater by these general condi- 
tions than it would otherwise have been. Similarly we may argue 
that the occasional diminution of the inflow, its sporadic cessation 
or even reversal, are also explicable on general grounds ; they would 
have been more marked had not the world supply of gold been in 
process of enlargement. But all this clearly is to explain the 
facts in the light of a theory deemed sound, not to test the sound- 
ness of the theory by the facts. What we find is simply trickles