THE UNITED STATES, I. UNTIL 1900 283

There were interruptions, however; occasional stages when the
hange that set in with the crisis of 1873 was halted, even was
temporarily reversed. For two decades, from 1873 to 1893, the
situation hung in the balance; the excess of merchandise exports
vas not continuously and unfailingly maintained. British trade
was then in a stage of similar wavering. The course of events on
the one side of the Atlantic was in almost every respect the obverse
of that on the other; the international trade of the two countries
represented two aspects of one and the same series of operations.
More especially, the loans of the one and the borrowings of the
other were closely connected with the recurring alternations of
activity and depression. The export of capital from Great Britain
increased rapidly during the upswing stages of the several cyclical
periods, and her excess of merchandise imports then declined ;
relatively, her exports became greater. During those same stages,
the import of capital into the United States (chiefly from Great
Britain) increased, and the imports of merchandise became greater.
In some years of the period after 1873 the movement of capital into
the United States was in such volume that the imports actuall
exceeded the exports, the capital borrowings being so great as to
exceed all the other non-merchandise payments which the United
States had to meet. This was the case in 1888 and 1889, and again
in 1893.! The last-named year marks the end of this period of
ndecision. A sudden decline of imports followed the crisis of
1893, and the excess of exports over imports became not only
marked but persistent. It was maintained steadily thruout the
wenty years following, and became astonishingly great — a phenomenon
 to be considered presently in some detail.
In general all this is in accord with expectation. It is as much
so as In the case of Great Britain, perhaps more completely so. The
correspondence, or rather inverse relation, between the experiences
of the two countries extends not only to the borrowing operations,
but also to another item in the international account, namely, shipping
 earnings. While these became steadily greater for Great

! These are fiscal years, from June 30 to July 1, ending on July 1 of the year
indicated.