THE UNITED STATES, III. AFTER 1914 327
The way in which it differs from the ordinary or expected course
of events — from the “normal” — deserves attention.
The transition from a borrower's position in international trade
to that of a creditor ordinarily has taken place by a gradual process,
spread out over decades or even generations. Even the transition
from the earlier stages of borrowing to its later stages is usually
spread over many years. Let us recapitulate. First, there is
the initial stage, with an excess of imports as its concomitant ;
then, as interest accumulates, a gradual lessening of that excess ;
then a hesitating period, with a roughly even balance of imports
and exports; finally, an excess of exports which serves to meet the
accumulated interest payments. A half-century may elapse
between the first and the last stages. Of this general character,
as we have seen, was the succession of events in the international
trade of the United States during the pre-war period. If there-
after the borrowing country grows rapidly in wealth, and accumu-
lates capital very fast — as the United States did — it is to be
expected that, in the usual course of peaceful trade, still another
series of stages will appear. The country may begin to pay off
its foreign debts, buying back the securities held abroad by for-
eigners and the properties owned by them within its own borders,
The following figures show both sides of the capital movement during the
four years in millions of dollars:
YEAR
1922
1923
1924
1925
Credit
OUTSTANDING
SECURITIES SOLD,
ForeieN
BoxNps REDEEMED,
PRINCIPAL OF INTER-
ALLy DEBT PAID
]7
57%
Debit
NEW SECURITIES
BouGaT
(FrEsH LOANS)
AND OUTSTANDING
SECURITIES BOUGHT
NAY
7
ang
ull
Net Credit (+) Net Debit (-)
3
J9
122
4392
I take these figures from the consolidated statement, just referred to, published
by the Department of Commerce in 1926 ; but do not follow the practice of regard-
ing the inflow or outflow of U. S. paper money (a minor item) as part of the capital
movement.
