260
INTERNATIONAL, TRADE
Pe
PE
gy
may be fairly said to give one. There the verification of theory is
almost conclusive. The British situation, however, was more
complex than the Canadian. The specie movements, for one
thing, had quite a different character. Gold was steadily flowing
into Great Britain from the mines, and steadily flowing out to
other countries. The South African gold — much the largest
constituent in the rapidly accruing output — went first to London,
and thence filtered out in irregular streams to other countries.
Both imports and exports of gold were almost continuous, and
represented in the last analysis nothing more than the process of
distributing the new supplies over the world at large. None the
less, each individual movement was determined proximately in the
same way as if there had been no new gold at all — by the Bank of
England’s position, its reserve, its rate of discount, its relation to
the British banks at large, the price of foreign exchange, the
imports and exports of goods. To trace the connections between
these monetary elements and the general problems considered in
preceding chapters is a task which I have not found it practicable
to carry out. It would be necessary to follow step by step the
flow of gold into the country and out of it; the Bank’s reserve
holdings and discount policy; the reserves, the interest rates,
the loan operations and the deposits of the commercial banks;
the details of the price changes —in fact, the working of the
entire banking and monetary mechanism. Not least, the flow of
commodity imports and exports would have to be followed in de-
tail. Such an inquiry might well yield results of significance not
only for the problems of international trade, but for those of
money and credit as well. In this matter, as in so many others,
economic science needs much laborious and skilled statistical
research for its enrichment and advancement.
One thing, however, stands out in the British phenomena. This
is the unmistakably close connection between international pay-
ments and the movements of commodity imports and exports.
And this closeness of connection, striking in the case of Great
Britain, is found again and again in other countries also.” Inter-
national payments, tho they involve between the individuals