Changed Ratio of Prices to Earnings 91
grade rail bonds averaged about twenty-two times
as much as their dollar yield. Relationship between
the yields was that of eleven to eight.
But unlike the fixed relation of bond prices to
bond yields, the price-earnings ratio for stock
should reflect not only current earnings but expected
earnings. That is why the price-earnings ratios
should not be fixed to any standard, but wholly with
reference to expected earnings of different stocks.
At the average price-earnings ratio of ten to one,
which prevailed after the panic, however, it should
be noted that while the stock exchange had endured
the severest break in history, this did not suffice to
shake the price level of stocks off a warrantably new
high plateau which had been built up since 1922.
Within a month the market rebounded to a level 21
per cent higher than the low of November 13th—
and that low was 30 per cent higher than the 1926
level of stock prices.
A potent reason for the post-panic rebound of
1929 is found in the record of dividend payments
and of corporation earnings for the first nine months
of 1929. This, as reported by the New York Times,
spelled a gain in real income and sound conditions
of business that was reflected in cash dividends
amounting to $3,122,000,000 during the first three
Quarters of 1929, as against $2,395,000,000 during
the like period of 1928. Cash dividends aggregated
more than $399,000,000 during September, 1929,
as contrasted with $278,000,000 during September,
1928,
Moreover, greatly as cash dividends increased