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year — the performance for the first four years can be com- 
pared with what would have been required if the goals were 
to be achieved. This is done in Table 8 by assuming that the 
output path between 1958 and 1965 was to have been linear Mh. 
For the four years ending in 1962 the annual increase in 
gross agricultural output was only 18% as large as that re- 
quired to achieve the 1965 goal. Of the ten commodity groups, 
there were two with output declines. For the other eight, the 
ratio of the actual to the planned increase ranged from 21 to 
93%, with only one of the ratios being in excess of 50%. 
For the commodity with the highest ratio of actual to planned 
increase — sunflowers — the planned increase for the period 
was only seven per -cent. 
The record of output performance of Soviet agriculture is 
somewhat better than that indicated by the estimated seven 
per cent increase in output between 1958 and 1962. In 1958 
climatic conditions were very favorable and agricultural output 
was probably five per cent greater than it would have been 
under average climatic conditions. However, in the published 
discussions of the Seven Year Plan I have seen no evidence 
that the effect of the favorable conditions in 1958 was taken 
into account in establishing the 1965 goals. I suspect that the 
modest increase in planned output for sunflowers and other 
oil-bearing seeds reflected the high 1958 yields, but I have seen 
no place where this was recognized. 
A brief comment concerning the decline in sugar beet output 
between 1958 and 1962 may be in order. There is little doubt 
that the output of sugar beets for refining could have been 
larger in 1962 than it was. The sugar beet goal for 1965 ap- 
pears to be an instance where the goal was set too high in terms 
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(') According to data presented in a speech by N.S. Krushchev 
(« Pravda », March 5, 1962) it appears that the annual goals for agricultural 
products for 1958-65 are approximately linear interpolations of the 1958 
output and the 1965 goal. For two examples given — grain and milk — 
almost exact linear interpolation was involved; for the third example — 
meat — output was supposed to have increased at a greater absolute 
amount in earlier than in later vears 
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