SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC.

scope will be noted. One is the feed-back on fact-finding of an
explanatory model: the construction of the model makes use of
empirical observations, and once the model has been constructed it
directs the fact-finding to new types of observations that are of relevance
 for the improvement of the model. The second point is that
the problems of short-range and long-range forecasting often are distinctly
 different, and require quite different types of explanatory
models. This is so in meteorology: The thermodynamic theory provides
 fairly realistic forecasts over the next 24 or 48 hours; the
cyclones usually die out in a matter of days, so if we want weather
prediction over weeks instead of days we must find another theoretical
 basis for the forecasting model.
At the other extreme, I should like to refer to the science of
history, and then place economics and econometrics as intermediate
between meteorology and history. History, of course, is in a sense
very near to economics, and reference is here made to the brilliant
review in Prof. STONE’s paper of the interdependence between the
economic developments on the one hand, and political objectives
and policy making on the other. Here we are on the border between
economics and history, and if we adopt Prof. MAHALANOBIS’ global
point of view this is perhaps more history and politics than economics.
 Anyway, it is interesting to examine this area with regard to
the three types (1)-(3) of models. The prevalent view among professional
 historians is that forecasting lies outside the realm of their
science. In a way, of course, this is true, or rather a truism; history
looks back into the past to explore « wie es eigentlich gewesen sei, »
to quote a famous dictum. The point I wish to make is, however,
that history does not show an entirely blank record when it comes
to forecasting. For one thing, the study of history is one of the lines
of university education that by long tradition qualify for a career in
the diplomatic corps and other strata of civil service where judgements
and counsels about future developments are important elements of
the professional activity. Of special interest in this respect is the
great work of ARNOLD TOYNBEE. It is a question what is most
admirable, his encyclopedian approach toward historical fact-finding.

1

Stone - pag. 93