MOVEMENTS AND TRADE 125 
The movements of the two curves then revealed a consilience 
that is singularly perfect. In the twenty-five years represented, 
the movements of the curves are in opposite directions only in 
the 1901-4 period, when there were extraordinary circumstances 
of national emergency connected with the war in South Africa. 
More perfect correlation than that obtained in the decade 
1904-14 could scarcely be imagined, and the control exercised 
upon Australian gold reserves by fluctuations in the volume of 
loans may be accepted beyond the possibility of question. In 
its turn the volume of bank credit varies with the size of the 
gold reserves, and the connexion is complete. 
joan 
£m 
‘GOLD 
£m 
15 
PUBLIC I0A? 
A 
A 
(910 
Fig. VIII. PUBLIC LOANS AND GOLD RETAINED, 1890-1914 
Plottings for gold movement retarded one year. 
The plotting of oversea loans only, by the elimination of domestic loans which rose 
from 10 per cent. in 1890 to 23 per cent. in 1910, has no perceptible effect on the 
parallel movements of the two lines shown in the graph.