246 THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE IN RELATION
between the debits and credits in the British international
account has only to be compared with the total of foreign loans
to afford conclusive evidence of the shrinkage in Britain's power
to save.l This comparison is set out below.
Surplus of Income Account and Foreign Loans for
Great Britain
(In £ Millions)
Total income from all sources
Less excess of imports .
Surplus available . .
Overseas loans . :
Surplus available at 1913 prices. v
Overseas loans at 1913 prices . ,
1913.
1928.
504 | 508
390 359
114 149
148 105
181 5 64 | 100
160 50 | 84 70
1926.
It is clear from this analysis that the volume of foreign loan
issues in 1928 was only 44 per cent. of the pre-war volume,
although it should be noted that the amount retained for
domestic investment was greater by about the same proportion.
After 1924, since there was no available surplus from production,
Britain was actually borrowing to finance her foreign loans,
although the rate of borrowing progressively declined thus:
1924, £81 millions; 1925, £60 millions ; 1926, £55 millions ; 1927,
£20 millions. Ineffect over the four-year period she thuslent £470
millions and borrowed £205 millions. Short-period borrowing,
however, if it did not actually cease was almost negligible by
1928, since there was in that year a surplus of £30 millions
applied to domestic investment. But the post-war surplus was
£100 millions as compared with £180 in 1913; and the volume
of loans but £70 millions as compared with the pre-war £160
millions. It would appear, therefore, that Australia cannot rely
apon the imminent recovery of Britain’s former ability to pro-
vide capital for investment abroad. Further, the reorganization
of British industry is making heavy demands upon the capital
surplus. Over the period 1924-8, inclusive, an annual average,
reckoned on the pre-war price basis, of £70 millions was thus
absorbed, compared with the annual average of £30 millions
for the five-year period immediately prior to the war. Although
! See Gregory, First Year of the Gold Standard, pp. 15 ef seq.