ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
INFLUENCED by the researches of Professor Wesley Mitchell into
the American situation, this study was commenced nine years
ago as a statistical investigation of business cycles in Australia.
The violent disturbances of the post-war period, however,
presented very considerable difficulties in the way of economic
analysis; and it became evident that the area of investigation
would have to be extended beyond the Australian field. The
impact of world conditions upon the economic organization of
the Commonwealth necessitated a parallel inquiry into the over-
Seas credit position ; and the research took definite shape on the
lines made familiar by the work of Professor Jacob Viner.
Meanwhile, the great impetus given to studies of this character
by the organization of the Economic Society of Australia and
New Zealand, and the publication of The Economic Record,
served to crystallize many of the issues involved in business
fluctuations in Australia. The contributions made by Professor
D. B. Copland in many publications and in the Development
and Migration Commission’s Report on Unemployment took the
study forward many stages; and it then became obvious that
the isolation of the main controls could be conducted more
effectively in London than in Melbourne. The award of a
Fellowship of the Rockefeller Foundation, the considerate treat-
ment accorded me by the Council of the University of Mel-
bourne, and the good nature of my chief and colleagues enabled
the change of base to be made. As a result of that opportunity
the accompanying research is presented in the hope that some
light may be thrown into the dark places of our business
situation,
To Dr. T. E. Gregory, Cassel Professor of Finance at the
London School of Economics, who undertook the direction of
my work there; to the officials of Australia House and the
Bureau of Census and Statistics, who never wearied in the well-
doing involved in reference to papers ; to many economists in
Britain and America who became interested in the work ; to the
librarians, bank officers, and business executives who gave
