SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETc. 1163 
Union (!). For the United States we have projections made 
for both consumption and production. Only one aspect of the 
production projections will be reviewed, namely crop yields. 
It is assumed that the goals for the Soviet Union represent 
projections of attainable output. For both the United States 
and the Soviet Union the projections will be related to actual 
experience. 
A. Projections for the United State 
I. Consumption of agricultural produc. 
[ shall describe and comment upon only two of the nume- 
rous projections of consumption of agricultural projects. One 
projection was made in 1948 by the U.S. Department of Agri- 
culture and was for the average of the period 1955-65. I have 
assumed that the data for the year 1960 represent the average 
for that period. The other projection was made by REx F. DALY 
of the U.S. Department of Agriculture and was published in 
1956 and the projections were for 1960; this study also included 
projections for 1975 but these are not considered here. 
Basically the two studies projected the consumption of agri- 
cultural products on the basis of a model in which population 
and per capita income were projected for the specified period. 
Then the consumption of agricultural commodities was estim- 
ated from studies of income elasticities of demand and other 
information concerning trends in relative demands. In order 
to eliminate the effects of errors in population projections, all 
data on consumption are here presented on a per capita basis. 
In Table 4 I present certain of the underlying data on po- 
() T wish to acknowledge my obligation to Professor JaMEs BONNEN 
of Michigan State University who brought together much of the material 
on the U.S. projections 
3 
Johnson - pag. 23