1184 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA 
shipping of both raw jute and manufacture and changes in stock 
in the hands of jute mills; the production and utilization figures 
were in agreement within a margin of about 2 per cent. Although 
such an objective method can be used, the so-called « official » 
estimates of foodgrains in India are based on the perfectionist theory 
of figures being obtained for every field in the village; because this 
is a so-called complete enumeration, and because such a system 
has been in use for centuries, therefore it has high legal status like 
custom immemorial; and also no independent check should be per- 
mitted, because it would be confusing if the results of such a check 
differed from the official estimate. So the point stated by Mr. 
JOHNSON is well taken and extremely important. It also raises the 
question whether a lot of sophisticated acrobatics on econometrics 
on the basis of such unreliable statistics in the underdeveloped coun- 
‘ries would not be a complete waste of scarce resources. 
I entirely agree that without progress of agricultural output no 
rapid economic development is possible. I do not clearly understand 
the last paragraph at the end of page 37 «I do not believe that 
projections that can now be made possess the necessary degree of 
accuracy to make it feasible to rely upon detailed planning procedures 
which largely supplant the operation of the market ». I understand 
what this sentence means, but on the other hand, I take it that the 
next paragraph is making out a case for State intervention. I find 
a little gap here. Can you always leave it to market operation as 
such in an underdeveloped country? I should strongly differ. In 
my own country in 1943, during the war, because of that particular 
doctrine (I may mention that the Economic Adviser of Government 
at that time was Dr. GREGORY, the author of a standard book on the 
Gold Standard) there was no attempt at any control or rationing of 
foodgrains with the result that a famine broke out in Bengal. An 
official commission appointed by the British Government found that 
ome and a quarter million people had died directly from famine, 
which is about twice the total casualties of the U.S.A. and U.K. 
taken together during the Second World War. This happened. 
Therefore, I do believe that government intervention is essential but 
should be a minimum. 
16] Johnson - pag. 44