. MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
the course of the employment curve. A drop in the pig iron curve
in 1892 suggests a recession in industrial activity which may account
for the immigration slump later in that year; also, pig iron production
 shows a decline in 1911 which harmonizes well with the migration
 slump in that year.
In some respects pig iron production is a better index of employment
 opportunity than our index of factory employment.
Iron is basic to many industries, including, for example, building
construction, for which we have no adequate direct statistics of
CHART 14
CycricaL FructuaTioNs IN MALE IMMIGRATION AND Pia Iron
PropucTioN: 1890-1914.
Three-month moving averages of deviations from trend, corrected for
seasonal variation. Unit=one standard deviation
0 EAT J
20} or 9
0
10 ;
ol
SOB 1/05 48s ve 553 1661/57 TRE 5091/0000 0 100 1500 0 owe 360: + 115001 90s (5 ers 0 |
«The numerical data for the male immigration curve are in Appendix Table IIT;
the pig iron curve represents a three-month moving average of the data in Appendix
Table VI, expressed in multiples of their standard deviation, 17.13 per cent.
employment. It also has a wider geographic scope than the employment
 index. The evidence, therefore, of similarities to the pig
iron curve should strengthen the conclusion previously reached to
the effect that male immigration fluctuates in rather close sympathy
 with employment, but lags somewhat, though apparently
only two to four months.
Clearings index. Co
A comparison was also made between male immigration and an
index of business prepared by Mr. Carl Snyder of the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York.: This index is based on bank clearings
outside of New York deflated by a general index of prices designed
sJournal of the American Statistical Association, September, 1924, p. 335.

04