22 jEypedmental Xegielation
four opportunities of experiment in the same subject
during the longest political career. If we
divide up the country, and try one experiment on
one town or county, and another on another,
there is a possibility of making an almost unlimited
number of valid trials within ten or twenty years.
But, apart from this consideration, a general legislative
change is not a true experiment at all,
because it affords no clear means of distinguishing
its effects from the general resultant of social and
industrial progress. Statistical facts are usually
numerical or quantitative in character, so that, if
many causal agencies are in operation at the same
time, their effects are simply added together
algebraically, and are inextricably merged into a
general total. Thus, the total numbers receiving
poor-law relief, or the numbers apprehended in
the kingdom for drunkenness, are numerical
results affected by the oscillations of trade, by the
character of the seasons, the value of gold, etc.,
etc., as well as by the Acts of the legislature. To
make a valid experiment we must have a certain
thing subject to certain constant conditions, and
we must introduce a single definite change of
condition, which will then be probably the cause
of whatever phenomenon follows. It is possible,
indeed, to experiment upon an object of varying
conditions, provided we can find two objects which
vary similarly ; we then operate upon the one,
and observe how it subsequently differs from the