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THE  PROBLEM  OF  THE  UNEMPLOYED

Department,  but  is  merely  quoted  as  a  serviceable  index
to  the  general  condition  of  trade  and  employment  in
some  of  our  staple  manufactures.  The  Board  of  Trade
exercises  no  power  to  compel  all  trade  societies  to  make
returns  of  “  unemployed  ”  ;  many  unions  have  no  record
of  “  unemployed”,  many  that  have  a  record  make  no
return,  and  many  of  the  returns  are  too  indefinite  for  use.
§  2.  A  Trade  Union  Average.
But  though  we  cannot  take  the  7  per  cent,  average
of  sixty-two  trade  unions  and  apply  it  generally  to  the
working  classes  in  order  to  estimate  the  total  of  unemployed, ­
  we  may  use  it  as  a  serviceable  starting-point  for
legitimate  conjecture.  In  particular,  I  propose  to  bring
evidence  to  show  how  far  it  is  likely  that  the  average  of
those  who  are  involuntarily  “  unemployed  ”  is  greater  or
smaller  than  7  per  cent.
This  task  requires  an  answer  to  three  questions:
1.  How  far  can  the  figure  7  per  cent,  be  taken
as  a  true  estimate  of  “unemployment”  among  trade
unionists  ?
2.  How  far  would  the  average  “unemployment”
among  trade  unionists  be  reliable  as  a  measure  of
unemployment  in  the  whole  manufacturing  and  extractive ­
  industry  of  the  country?
3.  How  will  these  industries  compare  with  other
branches  of  labour  in  respect  of  “  unemployment  ”  ?
In  order  to  deal  effectively  with  the  points  involved
in  the  first  two  questions,  it  is  well  to  understand  how
far  the  sixty-two  trade  unions  which  yield  the  basic  7
per  cent,  are  representative  of  the  general  trade  of  the
country.  The  courtesy  of  the  Labour  Commissioner