141

It  will  be  seen  that  there  was  one  fall—in
the  period  1891-1895.  But  beginning  with
that  period  the  advance  was  continuous.  A
glance  at  Diagram  I.  will  show  the  upward
course  of  the  world’s  export  trade.
When  we  look  at  the  decennial  averages  in
Statement  A  we  see  a  steady  increase  in  the
world’s  export  trade.  And  this  method  is
probably  the  best  that  can  be  used  to  make
the  course  of  trade  disclose  itself.  It  has  been
extensively  applied  by  me  in  my  “  British
Trade  Year  Book  ”  (John  Murray),  and  I  may
point  out  that  when  the  trade  of  single
countries  is  thus  treated  by  the  method  of
decennial  averages  many  up  or  down  gradients
of  trade  are  seen  to  exist,  which,  as  the  latter
part  of  Statement  A  shows,  are  wholly  absent
from  the  trade  of  the  world.
It  is,  I  think,  to  be  expected  that  the  trade
of  the  world  should  constantly  increase,  apart
from  the  evidence  of  fact  given  in  Statement  A,
which  relates  to  one  important  part  of  the
world’s  trade.  I  say  this  because  we  have  the
fact  that  the  world’s  population  is  constantly
increasing.  This  means  that  the  material
needs  of  that  population  also  constantly  increase. ­
  Therefore,  the  world’s  activity  in
producing  merchandise  of  all  sorts,  for  consumption ­
  by  the  world’s  increasing  population,