Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: The analysis of economic systems / Richard Stone, Cambridge University - Cambridge - Great Britain

Collection:: Economics Books

= 4 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 [f the intervals between 0 and 1 and between 1 and 2 are the same, then ® =1. The effect of this method of projection will be to change each coefficient in the way that it has been changing in the past. This can be only approximately correct, and so it is of particular importance to get as much direct information from outside as possible. For example, in Britain between 1954 and 1960 the oil component of the input of fuel into electricity ge- neration rose from a very small figure to nearly 20%. A con- linuation of this trend would make oil the dominant fuel input by 1970. But we know that this particular trend will not continue as in the past because of the kind of fuel used in generators that have been built very recently and are planned for the immediate future. The direct information can come either from current statistics of input-output coefficients which are available in a limited number of cases, for example coal used in coke ovens, or from outside knowledge, as in the case of oil used in the generation of electricity. We have used such direct information wherever possible and then applied (IV. 58) to the remaining elements of the input-output matrix. We have then discussed the results of this exercise cell by cell and changed the projections subjectiv- ely if this seemed desirable. The results of such a survey are illuminating. For example, we were surprised to find that in our projections the coefficient for machine parts and repairs into agriculture rose, indicating a greater use of machinery, while the coefficient for petroleum products fell. We were told that this was not really surprising because of the substitution of the less processed and cheaper diesel oil for petrol and that our results were a reflection of this particular type of fuel economy. We therefore did not change our provisional result in this case, although we did in manv others. d) Output levels. If we bring together the foregoing cal- culations, we can estimate output levels in 1970. In the preli- 11 Stone - pag. 70

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