Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Toward a verdict on macroeconomic simultaneous equations / Herman O.A. Wold, Universitets Statistika Institution - Uppsala - Sverige

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 151 procedures of hypothesis testing. In experimental situations the empirical testing of a model can be based on replications under controlled conditions. It is here a recognized principle to treat the experiment as self-contained, not allowing the test procedure to exploit any information outside the observed sample (!?). For the testing of a variety of models a great many routine techniques are available that are of maximum power under the specified experimental conditions. In nonexpe- rimental situations the principle of the self-contained experi- ment 1s an unattainable ideal. Instead, approaches come to the fore that in a more or less systematic manner exploit other sources of information than the theoretical model and the em- pirical observations used for the estimation of its parameters. Such sources include comparisons with the results of similar or related models constructed for other regions or time periods; testing the validity of the model by ancillary theoretical argu- ments ad hoc; and, first and last, predictive tests where fore- casts from the model are followed up by observation ex post and comparison with the actual course of events. Confrontation with fresh evidence is, clearly, the real touchstone for the scientific validity of the model as well as for its practical use. Specific reference is made to KLEIN-BALL-HAZLEWOOD-V AN- DOME’s macroeconomic quarterly forecasting system for UK, Ref. 37, and its predictive testing, Refs. 38 and 39. Here is a keen follow-up study that without hesitation sets forth how the predictions conform or fail to conform to the actual deve- lopments, and the ensuing lucid and instructive comments sort out the weak and strong points of the model. Such follow-up studies are highly important, and indeed an indispensable sup- plement to the published models, both for improving the model subject to scrutiny, and as a guide for other related forecasting projects. Some twenty models have been constructed in seven different countries for predicting the boom-recession pulsations (**) Stated by R.A. FIsHER (1935), the principle has been brought te full significance by 1. TUKEY (1954) 2 Wold - pag. 27

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