Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Toward a verdict on macroeconomic simultaneous equations / Herman O.A. Wold, Universitets Statistika Institution - Uppsala - Sverige

Collection:: Economics Books

PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 sources of variability of the endogenous variables, the variables which the system has for purpose to explain. As to the second point, I feel sure we see the J? quotient in the same light, inasmuch as it is only a slight modification of Professor THEIL’s coefficient of inequality, J? being more similar to the Fisherian F ratio. The J? is designed to exploit the information obtained when a model is confronted with past observations on the one hand, and future comparisons between forecasts and actual developments on the other, and it is clear that if there is no model such information is not available. In his third and last point, Professor THEIL expresses relation B,) in words. We note the sharp contrast relative to model (A), which in general implies (C} E (y|y, 3) # 8 y + T7 The respecification (B,) - (B,) gives a clearcut answer to those questions which I have seen as obscure issues in my studies into the rationale of multi-relation models. I would fain to repeat that the respecification (B,) - (B,) dates only from a few years ago; see Ref. 13, Theorem 10, also Ref. 12, remark 3.2.26. In a first phase of my studies, Refs. 23, 34, a main theme was the comparison between recursive (also known as causal chain) systems and inter- dependent systems (A), a key point being that while recursive systems have a form that is directly amenable to a causal inter- pretation of behaviour relations and individual parameters, this is not so for interdependent systems (A). This first phase includes the joint attempt with R. Strotz, Ref. 18, to provide a causal inter- pretation for the individual parameters of interdependent systems (A). In a second phase, Refs. 27-30, my approach was to specify the models in terms of conditional expectations, called eo ipso pre- dictors, or briefly predictors. One type of model considered, called CCC (conditional causal chain) systems, was a straightforward 2] Wold - pag. 60

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