Full text: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

This suggests either that more capital would be needed in 1970, 
or that investment through the 1960’s would have to average 
more than the arithmetic mean of the initial and terminal 
years, or that initial rates of return in the 1960’s would have to 
be a little higher than in the 1950’s. We did not attempt to 
resolve these questions in [5] but simply increased by a 
constant proportion the initial rate of return in each industry, 
thus changing the allocations of labour until, in total, they 
were equal to the supply. 
From these calculations we obtained preliminary estimates 
of the changes required in the distribution and productivity of 
labour during the 1960’s. We found that virtually the whole 
of the increase in labour would be absorbed by the distributive 
and service trades, leaving a stationary labour force to be 
shared by the rest of industry. The calculated increases in 
productivity varied widely from industry to industry. On the 
whole they were higher than in the 1950’s but often not sen- 
sationally so; in some cases they were lower. 
We propose to discuss these estimates with outside experts 
as opportunity arises, but we shall not go out of our way to 
do this until our work on production functions is complete. 
f) Changes in the spectrum of skills. The work we have 
done so far on this subject is described in [5] [6]. We have 
divided the labour force into three main functions, managerial, 
clerical and technical, and have subdivided the last of these 
into five categories, qualified manpower, technicians, crafts- 
men, operatives and unskilled. From the census of population 
of 1951 we can estimate the number of men and women in 
each of these seven classes for each of our thirty-one industries 
and for government services. For 1961 the census results are 
not yet available and so we have made provisional estimates 
based on statistics of unemployment and vacancies. In making 
these estimates, we have tried to allow for the economic fluc- 
t] Stone - pag. 72

Note to user

Dear user,

In response to current developments in the web technology used by the Goobi viewer, the software no longer supports your browser.

Please use one of the following browsers to display this page correctly.

Thank you.