Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 116. country like India, the official figures are often unreliable for food- grains. There is no concept of checks and cross-checks. It is due to treating statistics as legal evidence, that is, to consider that its sanc- tion depends on the level of authority which gives administrative approval. The Food and Agriculture Ministry in India gives some estimates of foodgrains; as this Ministry is in administrative charge of matters relating to foodgrains, its estimate is the only one which must be accepted (in the sense of a law court accepting legal evidence). Even if another Ministry or Department of Government indepen- dently make some other estimate (say, from consumption side) then that estimate is not « official » in the legal sense and cannot be used. In fact, in India, it has been urged that only one agency should collect each type of statistics because multiplicity of agencies might lead to differing estimates which would be confusing; in other words, the very possibility of having checks and cross-checks must be eliminated. It is a somewhat paradoxical situation. India has some kind of reputation outside India for its statistics; but Indian statistics remains weak because statistics is treated as a matter of legal evidence and not of scientific validity. The official figures of foodgrains in India (based on so-called complete enumeration of all agricultural holdings), in my personal judgement, may be unde- restimates by some thing of the order of 20 or 25 per cent. The production of wheat and rice and other foodgrains can be estimated through samples on the basis of the area sown together with the yield per hectare ascertained by crop-cutting experiments. The con- sumption of foodgrains can also be ascertained through a sample of all households in the country. A direct ‘comparison is then pos- sible between such estimates of consumption with the independent estimates of production after allowing for seeds, inventory, loss in storage etc. As there would be at least two sub-samples and two independent estimates of both consumption and production, such comparisons can be carried out in an entirely scientific way. In the case of a cash crop like jute, during the war, the production estimates given in October of one year could be verified about 15 months later from the utilization estimates based on figures for 57 J 0 hnso n pag . 42

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