Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Toward a verdict on macroeconomic simultaneous equations / Herman O.A. Wold, Universitets Statistika Institution - Uppsala - Sverige

Collection:: Economics Books

150 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - %¢ The first point we wish to illustrate is that all four rela- tions (71) and (73) make eo ipso predictors. It will be noted that in any BEID-system the expectational variables y ;; are linear expressions in the predetermined variables z,. Owing to the very simple structure of the model (71)-(74) the expecta- tional variable p; is in the present case nothing else than -P P,_1- As a consequence, the demand relation (71a) coin- cides with the supply relation (71b). This last feature illustra- tes how the reduced form may in the BEID-approach contain more information than the primary form. Another point for which the three models provide clearcut illustration is that once the stochastic structure of the model is specified the parameter estimation is technical matter and therefore, in principle, a noncontroversial problem. For eo ipso predictors least squares regression provides consistent estima- tes; hence, for example, when applied to time series data gen- erated from the stochastic process specified by (61)-(63) the regression of p, on d, will provide a consistent estimate for the coefficient — 0.8 in the demand relation (68a) of the PFUE- system, but in general not for the coefficient - 0.6/p in the demand relation (65a) of the ID-system. We see that if the least squares regression is applied to (65a) the bias may be quite substantial, depending on the numerical value of p, and that the least squares estimate will be unbiased only in the special case when p=0.75. 3. PREDICTIVE TESTING OF NONEXPERIMENTAL MODELS (18) In the big arsenal of statistical methods, the techniques for the design and analysis of experiments are on the whole much more developed and refined than the techniques available for nonexperimental data. This is in particular so for the statistical *) The general argument of this section borrows from Ref. 34. ., Wold - pag. 36

Access restriction

Copyright

fullscreen: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Monograph

Chapter

Table of contents

Download

Monograph

Chapter

This page

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation