Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D’ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L'ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 41; model. If it does not occur, then (BR.3) is generally neces- sary for the block-triangularity of W(o). Indeed unless either (BR.3) or the first statement of (BR.3*) holds, no W(0)" can generally be expected to be zero if Bo. To see this, observe that (2.4) implies that W(o) cannot generally be expected to have any zero submatrices unless every term in the sum which is not wholly zero has a zero submatrix in the same place. This cannot happen unless every matrix involved is either block-diagonal or block-triangular. Hence, if V(8)=0o for all 8>>0, all such V(8) must at least be block- triangular as must B (3% 5.3. Block-Recursive Assumbtions in Economv-wide Models Unfortunately, while block-triangularity of A is not an un- reasonable circumstance to expect to encounter in practice (*) the assumptions on the disturbances involved in (BR.2) and (BR.3) or (BR.3*) seem rather unrealistic in economy-wide models for much the same reasons as did the parallel assump- tions of the recursive model. Thus, it does not seem reasonable to assume that the omitted effects which form the disturbances in two different sectors have no common elements; nor, as already discussed, does it seem plausible to assume either that there is no serial correlation of disturbances or that the dynamic system involved is decomposable. Note, however, that these assumptions may be better ap proximations than in the case of recursive systems. Thus one (38) Of course, this does not show that (BR.3) or (BR.3*) is necessary, since counter-examples may easily be produced in which different non-zero terms in (2.4) just cancel out. The point is that this cannot be assumed to occur in practice. To put it another way, since such cancellation cannot be known to occur, it clearly occurs only on a set of measure zero in the parameter space. Thus (BR.3) or (BR.3*) is necessary with probability 1. (**) It is encountered in preliminary versions of the Brookings-SSRC model. C. Hort and D. Stewarp have developed a computer program for organizing a model in block-toaneular form ar Fisher - pag. 70

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