Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

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Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

160 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - in the sense that advantage is taken of its properties to secure para- meter estimates. In Professor FriscH’s example, the birth rate may perfectly well be an instrument in the policy sense and fail to be an instrument in the statistical sense in that its movements when not influenced by the policy maker may be functions of the disturbances and the other endogenous variables of the system, Once again, my usage has quite a long tradition in econometrics behind it. ALLAIS This is not at all a criticism of FISHERS paper, but as an econo- mist, I must confess that I feel myself in sympathy with some of Prof. FriscH’s words. I did not intend to say anything, but in the introduction to this Study Week, we read « The econometric method represents a big improvement over non-mathematical me- thods of studying phenomena connected with economic operations ». I think we must be very careful about the impression which can be given to outsiders by the methods we use. My feeling is that there is a terrible gap between the power of statistical methods and the limitations of economic models and the data. The methods we have are in advance, and very largely in advance, if we compare them to the economic models which we use. We may have wonder- ful methods to analyse the models which are built but the value of the conclusions will then depend primarily on the value of the models. Thus the danger is that public opinion or politicians may greatly overestimate what we can do. The precision of the methods is one thine. Their value is another FISHER I am in basic agreement with Professor ALLAIS’ remarks. Anyone who has ever done a good deal of empirical econometric work knows 6] Fisher - pag. 76

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