Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. “x J , perfectly well that the apparent precision which the theory of esti: mation gives to the results is not in fact present. Whether this ic due to the properties of the model or to the character of the data is a matter of some dispute, but it is a common phenomenon. What my paper is about is those situations so common in prac- tice in which statistical techniques which have very nice properties in the secure situations for which they are designed do not in fact have such nice properties when applied to models of the type one actually has to estimate. In such cases we have to make all sorts of compromises to produce techniques which have properties whick one deems desirable. For example, in almost all the original lite rature on simultaneous equation estimation, everyone simply as sumed that there was no serial correlation in the disturbances. In economy-wide models, there is such serial correlation and the usual simultaneous equation estimators lose a good deal of their appeal if used incautiouslv [LEONTIEEF In the context of previous discussion I would like to raise agair the question of relative advantages and disadvantages of simulta neous as against independent estimation of the empirical parameters entering into different parts of an integrated analytical model. Al though from a fundamental philosophical point of view indirect inference and direct observation have much in common, in daily practice of scientific investigation they differ from each other greatly. So long as we operate with highly aggregative models, indirect inference must dominate the field. Since aggregative variables and parameters, in terms of which relationships are usually described. cannot be observed directly, they necessarily must be estimated in: directly. As soon, however, as disaggregation reaches the critical level at which the individual bits of data used in the theoretica model are identical or nearly identical to those familiar to the producers and consumers of individual goods and services in their 61 Fisher - pag. 77

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