Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 876375174

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-1989

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Lilienthal, Johann

Title:: Fabrikorganisation, Fabrikbuchführung und Selbstkostenberechnung der Firma Ludw. Loewe & Co. Actiengesellschaft, Berlin

Place of publication:: Berlin

Publisher:: Verlag von Julius Springer

Year of publication:: 1907

Scope:: 1 Online-Ressource (XI, 220 Seiten)

Digitisation:: 2017

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Das Betriebs - Kontobuch.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC. we obtain is, let us say, a demand parameter? This problem 1as been the subject of intensive study at the Cowles Commis- sion [11] [12] and more recently has been given an elegant form by presentation by Hurwicz [18] and, in terms of sta- ‘istical estimation, by DURBIN [13]. Important as these developments are, they certainly do not solve all the problems that the model-builder has to face. One of the main problems arises from the fact that relationships are constantly changing. I have already given consumers’ preferences as an example of this. Another example is of- fered by the techniques of production: a past input-output table will not be a good description of present intermediate techno- ogy; a fortiori it will not be a good description of the inter- mediate technology of the future. How then are we to proceed? The best thing to do is undoubtedly to consult outside experts about the way in which inputs have been changing, and to get from them an estimate of future input structures in different industries. But such information can only be expected from a limited number of highly articulate industries. In other cases ne can sometimes find time-series of input-output coefficients and project these into the future. Often, however, this approach is closed too, and there is nothing to be done but to project nput-output coefficients by a general method of extrapolation. A means of doing this is given in [36] and, in greater detail. n [9]. Another practical problem arises from the fact that, in formulating relationships, we usually begin by considering only the more general influences which we believe to be at work. For example, in formulating demand relationships we usually begin by allowing for the effects of income, prices and chang- ing tastes on the demand for different commodities. We know of course that other, more specific, influences are at work: an abnormally cold winter or hot summer, the temporary rationing of some commodity, a particular advertising campaign. Such specific influences are numerous and difficult to take into ac- “Stone - pag.

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