MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
Through 1910 immigration and production are, on the whole, de- 
clining, and emigration increasing. In 1911 production recovers 
temporarily, declines again, and then begins a steady recovery; 
immigration exhibits a clear depression, from which recovery begins 
in September; while emigration shows a distinct boom, with a 
decided decline in September. In 1912 and 1913 the inverse relation- 
CHART 19 
CycLicAL MOVEMENTS IN EMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, AND Pia 
IrRoN PRODUCTION: 
Three-month moving average 
Unit= one standard deviation 
li seam 
EMIGRATION 
+2.0 # 
er 
ee 
21 
-1.0} | 
-20kc 
“2.0 [aloe ee olaivoey SETA Molo WA Tal TelAofs | lA] slolo 
Ep TT Tn rm 1914 
«The numerical data for the immigration curve are in Appendix Table III; for the 
emigration curve, in Table 25; and the data for the pig iron curve are computed from 
Appendix Table VI. The immigration and pig iron curves represent deviations from 
trends; the emigration curve, deviations from the mean for the period. 
ship, though still evident, is less perfect. In 1912 both production 
and immigration rise, but immigration suffers a setback at the close 
of the year, while emigration after a mild decline in the first part 
of the year rises toward the close. In 1913 production declines 
steadily, immigration rises to a sharp but briefly maintained peak, 
while emigration declines until about the end of the year. In 1914 
immigration is low and emigration high during the first seven 
months, after which, under war conditions, both decline. 
108