176 MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
it would seem reasonable to assume, so far as the choice of a particular
 time of departure is concerned, that the immigrant is attracted
 by unusually promising opportunities, rather than driven
by the bitter necessity of seeking an adequate livelihood elsewhere.
Conversely, if a relatively large movement of immigrants coincides
with depression conditions in both the country from which they
come and the country to which they go, then migration must be
looked upon as a refuge of despair rather than as a voyage of hope—
in such case the immigrant is to be considered as moving, not
because he sees a clear opportunity to better a tenable position at
home, but because conditions are so bad there that at the worst he
feels he has little or nothing to lose. In any event, if the cycles are
substantially concurrent in the countries concerned, migration can
scarcely be considered as a means of international adjustment of
cyclical unemployment; for in such case either it withdraws workers
 from the home country when employment is at a maximum or
it floods an already depressed labor market in the country of immigration.

On the other hand, if there is a substantial lack of uniformity in
the cyclical movements in the United States and European countries,
then it is entirely possible that large immigration may be equally
the result of depression at home acting as an expelling force and
prosperity in the United States as an attracting force. Under such
conditions migration might have a distinctly beneficial effect,
ameliorating distress in Europe and meeting an industrial demand
in the United States. Whether the easy satisfaction of an industrial
demand for more workers is fundamentally beneficial and conducive
to a sound development of industry is a pertinent question, the
consideration of which we shall keep in abeyance for the present.
Before enlarging further upon the hypothetical possibilities, let
us endeavor to discover the degree to which cyclical movements in
industry do synchronize in the several important countries.
Material Used in International Comparisons.
There have been several detailed comparative studies of cycles in
the more important industrial countries, the most significant for
our purposes being various studies on British economic conditions,
consideration of which is deferred to the subsequent section of this
chapter dealing with the United Kingdom, and also a monograph
by Professor Alvin H. Hansen, based upon monthly data for the
period from 1902 to 1908, and dealing with cycles in the United

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