150 MODERN MONETARY SYSTEMS
already made his purchases, and has a certain interval
before payment falls due, will frequently cover himself
by purchasing the necessary foreign valuta at a rate
depending more or less on the quantity ratio between
supply and demand rather than on the personal desires
and above all the appreciation of those who buy and
sell. Moreover, on the assumption, which seems to us
the normal one, that commodities are bought abroad
which cannot be obtained at home, it 1s necessary to
accept the price of the foreign seller, except that, if there
is a choice, it is always possible to choose the most
favourable market.
We therefore believe, in conclusion, that Mr. Cassel’s
theory cannot be admitted in its full force, and that only
the following elements of it hold good. Trade between
England and France will develop on normal lines if the
rate of exchange reflects the parity of the respective
purchasing powers of the two currencies. But if, for
instance, the rate is lower than this parity—say 60 francs
to the pound instead of s50—French purchases in England
will tend to be restricted, and this will tend to send up the
franc in terms of sterling; in the opposite case, English
purchases in France will be reduced. Through such
variations in the balance of payments the exchange will
more or less tend to settle round about the purchasing
power parity, in so far as a dislocated exchange depends
on the balance of payments. And even these propositions
must be taken as subject to subsequent observations regarding
the effect of exchange fluctuations on internal prices and
therefore on the purchasing power parity.
§ 8. Hypothesis of an automatic adjustment of the exchanges.
We are thus brought back to an older theory, which in
our view is more consonant with the facts according to
which exchange fluctuations tend to bring about equilibrium
in the trade balance, and the restoration of the latter will tend
in turn to restore the exchange. This theory has a different
starting-point. It is assumed that, as seems most often