LAND ECONOMICS
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culations. Such disturbing factors are the pride of ownership
which will induce many people to accept a comparatively low rate
of return upon land investments, and departures from perfect
competition due to the influence of such institutions and forces
as custom, monopoly, and public authority.
In view of the importance of guiding present valuations and
activities by estimates of what the future will bring, a large part
of economic thought is being devoted to the problems of fore-
casting prices, values, and trends of utilization. Forecasting is
not peculiar to land economics; in fact, an interest in scientific
forecasting of land values has followed a similar interest in the
field of business economies. Being such a new part of the
science of land economics, forecasting has not been developed
much beyond the point of indicating the kind of data on which
forecasts should rest. An adequate statistical basis is still lacking,
but will probably be an outstanding development in the future.
In forecasting land values a distinction is drawn between the
short-time and long-time movements of values. The short-time
fluctuations are usually restricted to small areas and do not
affect generally the long-time movements. Forecasting for long
periods of time concerns itself with those factors which affect the
economic supply of land and the demand for land, or the demand
for the products and services of land which amounts to the same
thing. The factors that are most emphasized as affecting the
demand for land are: growth of population, development or
decay of industry and commerce, communication and transport,
quantity and quality of public improvements, the purchasing
power and standard of living of the people, the habits, customs,
and fashions of buyers of the products and services of land. The
economic supply of land is affected by such factors as the develop-
ment of means of transport, improvements in the technique of
land utilization, and the quantity, quality, and efficiency of labor.
The relation between some of these factors, so far as it has been
ascertained up to the present time, has already been stated as a
general principle of land values. It may now be stated as a more
formal definition as follows: Other things remaining equal, in a
progressive society, one in which the technique of land utilization
is improving, with increasing wealth and stationary population,
land values will decline. Specific exceptions to this general rule
can, of course, be pointed out.