72 The Stock Market Crash—dAnd After

of 1928, but 5.72 per cent lower than for the second
quarter of 1929. This estimate approximates that
of the National City Bank. Net earnings had increased
 faster than the level of stock prices during
the periods compared.

Recession in Fall of 1929
Moreover, the bulletin states that the recessions of
profits during the third quarter were not ‘‘entirely
attributable to a lessening of regular activity,” because
 they included seasonal recession during part
or all of the third quarter under the divisions of automobiles
 and trucks, auto parts and accessories, business
 equipment, restaurant chains, and wearing
apparel. Nevertheless, there was some tendency
downward in business as a whole during this quarter
of 1929, with indications of further recession for the
fourth quarter.
But the bulletin concludes that normally satisfactory
 earnings for the year as a whole seemed assured.
This was because of the tremendous gain which the
nine months’ figures revealed over the corresponding
 period of 1928, “which, in itself, was a high point
of business activity for the post-war years.”
In judging earnings for the third quarter, also, it
must be considered that there was an unprecedented
rate of business operation during the summer months
of 1929, when a seasonal recession would be expected.
 There would then be a slackening of pace
for the latter part of the third quarter; yet the earnings
 figures indicated that the third quarter had in-