xviii 
Introduction 
through higher taxes and the sale of bonds; the post- 
war depression of 1920-1921; the recovery and the 
“Coolidge boom” of 1923-1924, and the second 
“Coolidge boom” of 1925-1926. 
The “Hoover boom” fluctuated more violently 
above the Karsten forecast line than any previous 
fluctuation, either up or down. In the retrospect it 
is easy to appreciate that preliminary symptoms of 
the crash were not lacking. 
Two Sides of the Picture 
But it is not so easy to see in the foregoing picture 
the underlying factors of the panic, and to judge 
whether it sprang from vital defects of the business 
structure or from more superficial causes relating to 
credit and finance. 
The avalanche came so swiftly, spreading such 
immediate and widespread disaster, that careful con- 
sideration of its origin is requisite. 
The first symptomatic recession in the stock market 
in August and early September attracted compara- 
tively little attention. Almost every recession dur- 
ing the course of the long bull market had been fol- 
lowed by recovery equal to the recession, and then 
progress upwards. But the decline of September, 
1929, although followed by an upward recovery, was 
renewed in October, and developed into terrific 
crashes lasting into November. Between the 5th of 
September and the 13th of November the vast bear 
movement had carried stocks down by about 42 per 
cent, and reduced the value of stocks listed on