xviii

Introduction

through higher taxes and the sale of bonds; the postwar
 depression of 1920-1921; the recovery and the
“Coolidge boom” of 1923-1924, and the second
“Coolidge boom” of 1925-1926.
The “Hoover boom” fluctuated more violently
above the Karsten forecast line than any previous
fluctuation, either up or down. In the retrospect it
is easy to appreciate that preliminary symptoms of
the crash were not lacking.

Two Sides of the Picture
But it is not so easy to see in the foregoing picture
the underlying factors of the panic, and to judge
whether it sprang from vital defects of the business
structure or from more superficial causes relating to
credit and finance.
The avalanche came so swiftly, spreading such
immediate and widespread disaster, that careful consideration
 of its origin is requisite.
The first symptomatic recession in the stock market
in August and early September attracted comparatively
 little attention. Almost every recession during
 the course of the long bull market had been followed
 by recovery equal to the recession, and then
progress upwards. But the decline of September,
1929, although followed by an upward recovery, was
renewed in October, and developed into terrific
crashes lasting into November. Between the 5th of
September and the 13th of November the vast bear
movement had carried stocks down by about 42 per
cent, and reduced the value of stocks listed on