36 The Stock Market Crash—dAnd After 
nounced by another financial expert, who contributes 
this statement: 
Business Recession 
“In my opinion the basic change was in the busi- 
ness curve and outlook. After nearly two and one- 
half years of advance at the rate of 1 per cent per 
month, in July of 1929 business turned downward, 
and it became evident that a business recession was 
in prospect. When prices were as high relative to 
earnings as they were in 1929, the recession outlook 
pulls the props from the stock market. The profit 
outlook had changed fundamentally. There were 
other causes that had been present for a year or 
more, but these had not broken the market. This 
downward turn in the business trend was the one 
new factor in the picture.” 
With this view the following statement by 
Mr. Lindsay Bradford, Vice President of the City 
Bank Farmers Trust Company of New York, is 
accordant: 
“Since early in 1929 considerable liquidation and 
distribution of stocks of various industries had been 
going on, and but little notice of it was taken due 
to the fact that the strength in certain other groups, 
such as the utilities, and certain outstanding indus- 
trials gave the whole market the appearance of such 
strength. This feature of the market was indicated 
during the Fall by the fact that when certain stocks 
were daily making new highs other groups were 
daily making new lows in the weeks before the