1162 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28

gional demand or of continuing to import substantial quantities
of food. The first alternative appears to imply a substantial
increase in the cost of food, while the second alternative has
important implications to a number of exporters of farm products.
 The first alternative implies a protectionist policy while
the second alternative would permit the region to realize significant
 gains from international trade and specialization.

ITI. A REVIEW OF SOME AGRICULTURAL PROJECTIONS

A governmental plan or policy depends upon projections
of future events. Plans by private firms and individuals obviously
 require projections of the same general kind, though
the degree of detail required may be substantially less. There
are, of course, significant differences in some of the effects of
errors in projections or forecasts when made by governments
and private individuals. For one thing, errors made by private
individuals may be offsetting. For another thing, errors made
by private individuals may bring into play forces to correct
the error, such as a decline or increase in market price, while
a government price policy, subject to rather more slowly functioning
 political processes, may compound the consequences of
projection errors. This will happen (and has) if a farm product
price is established at a high level which results in attracting
additional resources into the production of the product and
the bidding up of the price of certain resources. In order to
avoid economic distress to resources engaged in the production
of the product, prices may not only be maintained at the previous
 level but may be increased in order to provide a satisfactory
 income to the overexpanded sector of the economy.
In this part of my paper I shall review agricultural projections
 for the United States and agricultural goals for the Soviet

16] Johnson - pag. 22