ries 
rk 
wat 
le 
as 
pir 
1th 
at 
ar 
of 
an 
ite 
ne. 
elt. 
en 
rt 
nd 
oy 
she 
me 
nb. 
of 
he 
LY 
1= 
at 
y 
vg 
10 
= 
2 
ne 
TS 
t, 
Te 
of 
al 
he: 
0- 
cy 
id 
SO 
ad 
en 
rer 
wt 
ab 
at 
a. 
NO 
at 
va 
UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE UNITED STATES 187 
to peak proportions; that the prospects for stable employment for months ahead 
were better than they had been for two years. 
“And yet it didn’t turn out to be,” he continued, “for the reason that wider 
sublicity and greater emphasis were accorded it than anyone could foresee. 
What happened? Within a week after the item was released the district had 
more workers than it could absorb. Good mechanics from other States rushed 
there and in some instances got the jobs that otherwise would probably have gone 
to local mechanics. In some cases, too, they doubtless quit jobs, leaving their 
{amilies behind them. Another unfortunate phase was that many men of 
the type that could not possibly be employed spent time and considerable railroad 
fare to no purpose. I mention the incident simply to emphasize the harmful 
2ffect of giving too wide circulation and too large headlines to an employment 
tem, even though it be of an optimistic tinge. Print, unadorned, sometimes 
magnifies the simplest truth.’’ 
A LABOR BAROMETER 
“But don’t,” he continued—*“don’t draw the conclusion that because I oppose 
printed and oral broadcasting of unemployment statistics [ would detract from 
she value of these statistics where social relief is necessary. In cases of long- 
continued depression in a community they might well be invaluable. To my 
mind, unemployment statistics are as harmful to the employer and the man he 
would like to employ as is a blindly optimistic attitude that tends to embitter the 
social outlook of both.” 
And when all’s said, why bask in shadows? Is not this the thing we really want 
0 know; not so much about unemployment but more about the very real, de- 
serminable, inspiriting thing that makes unemployment loom, fade or disappear— 
she trend of employment? If we know the direction industry is moving in we have 
‘he world’s best earnest on what is ahead in buying power. For industry 
seldom employs workers unless and until it is ready to produce goods. In 
svery language business speaks, employment spells production, and production 
‘he capacity of producers to buy. 
Where to scent the trend? If the proper study of mankind be man the proper 
slace to study a subject is where the subject roosts. In the sphere of the printed 
word, what more reliable long-swing barometer of unemployment exists than the 
help-wanted advertisements of our foremost newspapers? What an uncanny 
fidelity, their bulk or paucity forecasts production's flow and ebb. 
A mass of charts and statistics clutter my desk. They show, month on month, 
for many years, the total linage and number of help-wanted advertisements 
carried by certain outstanding newspapers in nine of our largest industrial centers, 
If your memory is rusty as to the general state of business in any one year or 
juarter thereo, you have but to consult them to get an unbiased, comprehensive 
answer. There you vision, year on year, the blast of optimism that greets each 
new vear—spring’s mawlike demand for men in the building trades; the lull of 
summer, when few of us are concerned with jobs for other people, to say nothing 
of our own; the return of interest in things futuristic that shows itself after Labor 
Day, and, finally, November's and December's coldness to the building industry 
and affection for inventories and for paring down overhead until after the holidays. 
And then January once again, in every city, each vear. recording a greater 
lemand that the previous vear's December 
STATISTICS WITHOUT GUESSWORK 
Help-wanted ads reflect the need for labor in general and in specific industries. 
By their absence or insistent presence they forecast the trend in production and 
eventually in buying power. But they indicate that demand for labor weeks, 
sometimes months, after the demand first arises; for when a plant has been 
dormant and is about to man its idle machines its first and logical move is to recall, 
oy post, gate sign, or word of mouth, its furloughed employees. It inserts its 
aelp-wanted ads if and when its labor requirements continue unfilled. 
In the judgment of an employment veteran of many years’ service business has 
no more valuable indicator of the employment trend than reliable statistics prop- 
arly appraised and promptly released for public use. 
“But they should be weighed against other factors before we can be sure 
which way the pendulum is swinging,’’ says Mr. Charles J. Boyd, general super- 
ntendent of the Chicago Free Employment Offices. ‘For instance, a most 
wuthoritative source we in Illinois have throueh our department of labor is the