INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 193 
In fact in some instances, the emigration movement precedes the 
corresponding change in pig iron production. For example, emi- 
gration reached high points in 1872 and 1881, and a low level in 
1894, while the corresponding points in the pig iron curves are in 
1873, 1882, and 1895, respectively. 
The suggestion conveyed by the analysis of these two sections of 
the chart is that cyclical fluctuations in industrial conditions in the 
United States and Germany are substantially similar but that in 
some instances the United States movement anticipates the German 
movement by about a year, and that coincident high industrial 
activity in the two countries is accompanied by large emigration 
from Germany and an industrial depression by small emigration. 
This apparent dominance of the ‘pull over the push’ may find 
some explanation in the fact that the fluctuations in industrial 
conditions in the United States appear more violent than those in 
Germany. This is illustrated by the comparison of the two pig 
iron curves in the lower section of Chart 44, expressed as percentage 
deviations from seven-year moving averages. As a rule, the Amer- 
ican curve rises higher in prosperity and falls further in depression, 
so that even when industrial expansion in the two countries coin- 
cides, the greater volume of the American fluctuation affords one 
logical explanation of its effectiveness in attracting an increase in 
immigration from Germany. 
Employment in Germany and the United States (Chart 45) 
A comparison of employment conditions in the United States 
and Germany, by quarters, from 1901 to 1908, affords an oppor- 
tunity for further study of a period which is marked by substantial 
differences in the concurrent status of industry in these two coun- 
tries. From 1901 to 1904, inclusive, the cyclical movement of 
quarterly employment in Germany was, on the whole, contrary to 
the corresponding movement in the United States, particularly in 
1902, which was a year of low employment in Germany but a boom 
year in the United States. In 1905 to 1908, on the other hand, the 
two employment curves show better agreement, though the German 
labor market does not exhibit a recovery movement in the second 
half of 1908 such as occurred in the United States. 
~ The cyclical movement in emigration from Germany appears 
in this period to be determined by, or at least to vary with, em- 
ployment conditions in the United States. With the exception of 
minor irregularities and an occasional lag of from one to three