INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 125
The cyclical movements of this “other emigration” evidence a fair
degree of similarity to the cycles in emigration to the United States,
particularly in the first two decades after 1870, but there are a
number of instances in which the direction of the cyclical move-
ments of these two streams of emigration are divergent, such as the
changes, compared with the previous year, in 1889, 1892, 1893,
1906 to 1908, and 1910 to 1912. The occurrence of such diver-
gencies is also indicated by the fact that emigration to other coun-
tries varies, for example, from 23 per cent of the total in 1876 to
only 7 per cent in 1882, and from 4 per cent in 1907 to 26 per cent
in 1912 and 1913, this diversity indicating that there is a reasonable
TABLE 51.—QUARTERLY CYCLES IN EMIGRATION AND THE STATE OF THE
LaBor MARKET, GERMANY, 1901-1908
Deviations from the mean adjusted for seasonal variation. Unit — one stan-
dard deviation
EMIGRATION FROM GERMANY» 'RATIO OF APPLICANTS TO JoBs (signs
YEAR REVERSED)
IstQ [20Q | 3dQ l4rmQ | 1s1Q | 2p Q 3p Q | 4mm Q
1901" | —1.76 | —1.07 —1.03 —0.86 | —0.51 | —0.91 | —1.35 | —2 42
1902 | 40.39 +0.76 +0.73 | +0.54 | —2.23 | —1.50 | —0.85 | —1.31
1903 | +1.77 +1.78 40.84 | 40.90 | —0.54 —0.65 | —0.33 | 40.27
1904 | 40.59 —0.07 | —0.32 —0.56 | +0.15 40.24 | +0.43 | 40.33
1905 | —0.48 +0.07 | —0.04 —0.03 | 40.40 | 40.58 | 40.95 | +1.08
1906 | +0.66 +0.3¢ 40.24 +0.491 +£1.00 ' +1.07 | +1.08 ' +1 29
1907 40.08 +0.27 40.76 +078 £1.05 +094! £068 40.18
1908 —1.32 —2.08 -'_20 -¢52 —o.8] 1.83 - 20 —1.93
sComputed from monthly statistics published by the Kaiserliches Statistisches Amt, Vierteliahreshefte
sur Statistik des Deutschen Reichs.
bComputed from statistics of the number of applicants per 100 jobs in employment offices, in Der Ar-
beitsmarkt, J. Jastrow, editor, for the years prior to 1907; and in Reichs-Arbeilsblatt, Kaiserliches Statis-
tisches Amt, for 1907 and subsequent years.
likelihood that cyclical fluctuations in emigration were not dominat-
ed primarily by economic conditions in Germany but that the
conditions in the countries of destination were exercising a con-
siderable influence upon such eyelical movements.
Influence of Crop Failures.
The suggestion occurs that agricultural rather than industrial
conditions in Germany may explain emigration. We have not made
a close statistical study of crop yields in Germany but have com-
“Based upon a comparison of the cyclical curves in Chart 43 with a similar curve
for “other emigration,” not here reproduced.
as
