Full text: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

SEMAINE D'ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 1047 
The allocations of the GNP of the Developed Areas is des- 
cribed by the constants ?, and h, i.e., the percentage of the 
GNP invested domestically and the fraction of that Product 
transferred to the Underdeveloped Areas and invested there. 
In the Underdeveloped Areas it is described simply by ¢, — the 
proportion of it saved and invested; the rest of the investment 
being equal to the amount received from the Developed 
rountries. 
In the second column of Table I, the proportion of the 
GNP of the Developed Areas transferred to the Underdeveloped 
Areas is assumed to remain — over the ten year period covered 
by the projection — the same (0.3%) as it was in 1959. How- 
ever, the domestic investment ratio is assumed to have been 
raised in the Developed countries from 18.99, to 19.9% and 
in the Underdeveloped countries from 9.2%, to 10.8%. As a 
result of that the average growth rate of the two Areas — over 
the ten year period, 1959-1969 — would go up, respectively 
from 5% to 5.3% and from 3.29% to 3.5%. 
In the third column the transfer coefficient, h, is stepped 
up to 1.29%, and in the fourth column to 2.19%. That implies 
a transfer of $15 billion and respectively- $25 billion in 1959, 
and of correspondingly larger amounts with the growth of 
the GNP of the Developed Areas in subsequent years. 
Comparing the projected average annual growth rates shown 
in columns 3 and 4 we find that even with the capital transfer 
stepped up to $15 billion already in 1959, the Underdeveloped 
countries would still continue to grow slower than the Develop- 
ed; with $25 billion they would begin to catch up. The 
« break even point » at which the two growth rates become 
equal would be reached with a base year capital transfer of 
somewhere between $15 and $25 — probably around $20 
billion. 
The other five tables are organized on the same pattern as 
the first. The difference between any two tables lies in the 
assessment of the actual position of the two areas in the base 
vear 1050 
51 Leontief - pag. o
	        
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