Zollhandbuch für die Ausfuhr nach Rußland 1906-1917

Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 100638653X

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-39121

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Zollhandbuch für die Ausfuhr nach Rußland 1906-1917

Edition:: Vierte neu bearbeitete Auflage

Place of publication:: Berlin

Publisher:: Deutsch-Russischer Verein

Year of publication:: 1912

Scope:: 1 Online-Ressource (XVI, 592 Seiten)

Digitisation:: 2017

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Zolltarif für die Einfuhr in Russland

Collection:: Economics Books

INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 199 from the agricultural classes, where he has occupied the status of a laborer. Consequently, it is particularly pertinent to inquire as to the extent to which crop conditions in Ttaly account for fluctuations in emigration from that country. Aggregate Value of Leading Crops in Italy (Chart 47) As an aid to the determination of the relation between crop conditions and emigration, we have constructed an index of the aggregate annual value of leading crops in Italy. Inasmuch as a large crop may bring low prices in some years, but in others, because of adverse conditions in other parts of the world, may be accom- panied by good prices, it appeared probable that an index of the product of quantity and price would give the best evidence of the prosperity of the agricultural classes. The crops used in this index are wheat, maize, wine, rice, and olive oil, for the years 1884 to 1913, inclusive. The estimated values of the several crops, to- gether with a brief footnote description of the method used, are given in Table 52. Crop Values in Italy and Pig Iron Production in the United States. In view of the fact that Italy is predominantly an agricultural country, whereas the Italian laborer in this country engages pri- marily in industrial operations, it is desirable to ascertain whether crops in Italy or industrial conditions in the United States exercise the greater influence upon the cyclical fluctuations of immigration from Italy. For this purpose we have used the index of aggregate values of leading crops in Italy described in the above paragraph and the volume of pig iron production in the United States. It does not appear probable that the effect, if any, of crop conditions in Italy would become apparent until after some months, hence the comparisons made are chiefly between immigration in the fiscal year ending June 30th, and crop values and pig iron production of the calendar year ending on the preceding December 31st. This is tantamount to assuming an approximate lag of six months in the effect of crops or of industrial activity upon immigration. The outstanding relations are evident upon examination of Chart 47. The cyclical fluctuations in immigration from Italy, and those in pig iron production in the United States, in the years 1884 to 1914 inclusive, show a general, although not invariable, similarity in their general contour. As a rule, a change in pig iron is ac- companied, either in the same year or in the following year, by a

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