Kommentar zum Gesetz über eine Kriegsabgabe von Vermögenszuwachs und zum Gesetz über eine außerordentliche Kriegsabgabe für das Rechnungsjahr 1919 vom 10. September 1919

Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1016238525

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-55274

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Kommentar zum Gesetz über eine Kriegsabgabe von Vermögenszuwachs und zum Gesetz über eine außerordentliche Kriegsabgabe für das Rechnungsjahr 1919 vom 10. September 1919

Place of publication:: Berlin

Publisher:: Verlag von Otto Liebmann

Year of publication:: 1920

Scope:: 1 Online-Ressource (XXIII, 548 Seiten)

Collection:: Economics Books

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SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L'ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. T1 Le - sectors (*?) while the same endogenous variables lagged are likely to be safer in terms of inconsistency but are also likely to be more remote causes. The value of the result derived at the end of the last section is that it provides a case in which one set of instrumental variables is likely to dominate another set on both criteria. 6.2. Available Instruments and Multicollinearu- There is obviously one set of variables which has optimal properties on several counts. These are the exogenous variables explicity included in the model. Such variables are (by as- sumption) uncorrelated in the probability limit with the disturb- ances, they also are in close causal connection to the current variables in any equation; indeed, they are some of those variables in some cases (*)). In the happy event that such exogenous variables are adequate in number and in the non- singularity of their variance-covariance matrix, and that no lagged endogenous variables appear, there is no need to seek further for instrumental variables to use. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to be the case in an economy wide econometric model. Such models tend to be almost seli- contained with relatively few truly exogenous variables enter- ing at relatively few places. This is especially the case if go- vernment policies obey regular rules, follow signals from the economy, and are therefore partly endogenous for purposes of estimation ‘). In estimating anv equation, all variables not (°**) On causation in general and in decomposable systems (or our block: recursive systems) in particular, see SIMON [29]. (°°) They may not cause all such variables even indirectly if the dynamic system is decomposable. Such cases are automatically treated in the rules given below. (**) This is to be sharply distinguished from the question of whether go- vernmentally controlled variables can be used as policy as opposed to estimation instruments. (61 Fisher - pag. 45

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