Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VIII. The influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES in pig iron production may be explainable largely by the fact that he bulk of the immigrants credited to any fiscal year actually rrive in the second half of the year, that is, between January an une, inclusive, so that, for example, the effect of the industrial oom indicated by pig iron production in 1909 would, if there is ittle or no lag in its effect on immigration, be evident in the im- igration for the year ending June 30, 19009. Crop values, as portrayed in the lower section of Chart 47, are ore erratic in their fluctuations than pig iron production. Never, in the thirty years covered, is the direction of change constant for ore than two years. Also, the degree of agreement between crop alues and pig iron production is relatively low. Nor is there close greement between immigration and crop values.» However, if mmigration (fiscal years) is compared with crop values of the year erminating six months earlier, there is evident in several instances tendency for poor crops to be followed by an increase in immigra- ion and vice versa. For example the immigration curve rises in 890, 1893, 1900, 1903, 1905, 1907, 1909, and 1913, while the crop alue curve shows a decline for the preceding year. Also, in 1892, 897, 1904, 1908, and 1912, the immigration curve declines while he crop value curve rises in the preceding year. | But are these years in which relatively poor crops are followed by n increased emigration, or good crops by decreased emigration, Iso years in which immigration from Italy is not well explained by he changes in industrial activity in the United States? On the ontrary, in all of the fourteen years just mentioned but 1905 and 909, an increase in Italian immigration to the United States is receded by an increase in pig iron production, or a decrease in such immigration by a decrease in pig iron production; so that, in view f the further fact that in about half of the period under considera- ion an increasing emigration to the United States follows relatively ood crops, there is scant evidence to support the theory that cyc- lical fluctuations in emigration from Italy are largely due to crop onditions in the ur The coefficient of correlation between crop¥values and pig iron production, when oncurrent items are compared, is 4.32 with a “probable error” of 4.11; and between rop values in calendar years and Italian immigration to the United States in the res- pective years ending six months later is + .31 + .11. 2The relationship between the three series under discussion may also be expressed in ustomary mathematical terminology, that is, by stating the coefficients of correlation, which are +.50 + .09 for pig iron production and immigration from Italy in the fiscal ear ending six months later; and only 4.31 + .11 for the corresponding comparison between Italian crop values and immigration from Italy. 202

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