Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

CHAPTER IX SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS An analysis of seasonal changes in immigration and emigration is desirable for two purposes, first to make possible the correction of the crude data for typical seasonal variation so that the cyclical element may be more readily analyzed; and secondly, as a basis for comparison with the seasonal fluctuations in employment. CORRECTION FOR NORMAL SEASONAL VARIATION Necessity. With few exceptions, immigration and emigration both exhibit pronounced seasonal fluctuations. Furthermore, when statistics of the total movement are separated into their constituents, the several elements are found to exhibit different typical seasonal movements. To illustrate, the typical seasonal for the ‘no occu- pation’ group is essentially different from that for the groups for which the designated occupations are “laborer” or ‘farm laborer.” In all groups, however, the seasonal is sufficiently pronounced to make direct analysis of the original data difficult. To facilitate study of the susceptibility of the migratory currents to cyclical fluctuations in employment, it is necessary, as we have noted in previous chapters, to determine the typical seasonal movement and by abstracting this typical seasonal fluctuation from the original data, to leave a residue which represents the best available estimate of the influence of the remaining elements—trend, cycle, and accidental factors. In most instances, it has been found desirable to eliminate also the influence of the trend, leaving ‘“‘cycles’”’ which represent the influence of cyclical and ““accidental’’ factors alone. Period. An examination of graphs of the various immigrant and emigrant series reveals the fact that prior to the middle of 1914 most of them evidence a reasonably consistent seasonal movement, but that in 210

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