Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IX. Seasonal fluctuations

Collection:: Economics Books

= MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES above the zero line indicates the estimated increase in the number employed as compared with the preceding month; a bar below the zero line, an estimated decrease from the preceding month. The curve represents the typical pre-war net migration of males in the given month. TABLE 59.—ESTIMATE OF THE SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES IN THE PRE-WAR PERIOD» (Adjusted for cyclical variations but not for trend) Thousands of persons NUMBER EMPLOYED IN GIVEN INCREASE (+) or DrcrEASE (—) MONTH FROM PRECEDING MONTH SELECTED ) SELECTED MoNTH 2) pve OUTDOOR INDUS- AY% STR OUTDOOR INDUS- TRIES® TRIES A B C D Jan. . . 8,213.0 992.0 —136.6 —169.6 Feb... 8,266.9 996.6 + 53.9 + 4.6 Mar... 8426.6 1,105.1 +159.7 --108.5 Apr... 8,477 4 1,263.9 + 50.8 +158.8 May. . 8,758.2 1,531.3 4-280. 8 +4-267 .4 June. . 8912.3 1,661.3 +154.1 +130.0 July . . 8932.7 1,752.5 + 20.4 101.2 Aug... 9.134. 6 1,851.8 1201.9 + 99.3 Sept... 9,150.4 1,755.4 1715.8 — 06 Oct. . . 9,146.0 1,666.2 Sh eet S053 Nov... 8,899.1, 1,503.4 —246.9 —162.8 Dec. . . 8,504.0 1.0737 —395.1 —329.7 »These figures represent an estimate of the joint effects of seasonal and trend factors. The indices of seasonal variation given in the preceding tables were applied to the numbers employed in the respective industries in 1909, as recorded in the Census or estimated from other sources, and then the results were adjusted by adding the estimated effect of trend movements as indicated by data for the years 1907 to 1914. bIncludes factory employment, bituminous and anthracite coal mining, railway maintenance, and cons- t 5 Pre struction and railway maintenance. 5 dComputed from Columns A and B, with allowance for trend in computing the December to January change. Assuming that our estimates present a true picture of the typical changes in employment and in net male migration prior to the quota restrictions, we observe from Chart 55, Fig. A, and the tables upon which it is based, that in January there is a small net excess of alien male arrivals over departures, to the extent of about 5,500 persons, while employment in the selected industries decreases about 137,000. In the following eight months an excess of arriving over departing alien males is, in each case, accompanied by an increase in the number employed. In all these months but April, July, and Sep- 224

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